Zambia's upcoming election is a complex affair, with a multitude of factors influencing the outcome. At the heart of this contest is the lingering presence of former President Edgar Lungu, whose unresolved burial dispute has become a potent political symbol. This issue has energized support for the opposition National Reconciliation Party for Unity and Prosperity (NRPUP), particularly in Lungu's traditional strongholds, as people see it as the best chance to unseat the incumbent. Meanwhile, the dispute has complicated the second-term bid of President Hakainde Hichilema and his United Party for National Development (UPND), which draws its core support from the south, west, and north-west while seeking to expand its reach nationwide.
The political battle is playing out on the streets of Lusaka, with campaign songs and jingles overlaying the familiar hum of commerce in the busy markets. Election posters are everywhere, with the faces of presidential and parliamentary candidates looming over passers-by. This is all against the backdrop of recent constitutional reforms aimed at boosting the voice of youth and women.
The dominant conversation on street corners and in minibus taxis is the cost of living. Zambia has not been spared from the worldwide pressures of high food and energy prices that followed the pandemic and subsequent geopolitical shocks. Annual inflation has cooled to around 6.6%, its lowest in eight years, and the currency, the kwacha, has strengthened, but for many households, the relief remains theoretical.
"The cost of living, I cannot say is okay," says Given Kangwa, a 27-year-old flour-mill worker standing in Lusaka City Market. "Where I work, for example, the money we are getting paid is not enough and we cannot sustain our lives." Kangwa explains that he was paid about 3,000 kwacha ($157; £117) a month, which is barely enough to cover food, rent, and other expenses.
The political landscape shifted dramatically with Lungu's death on June 5th last year. The courts had ruled that he could not run again, after having won two elections, but his passing removed the opposition's most recognizable figure and initially appeared to create a smoother path to victory for the incumbent. Lungu's PF party fractured, with some politicians and supporters shifting to other opposition groups, accelerating the consolidation of a split opposition around Brian Mundubile, a 55-year-old lawyer, accountant, and former government chief whip under Lungu.
Mundubile's central pitch is generational and inclusive. "We are moving the women and the youth from the margins to the center of policy and economic transformation," he told the BBC. "We believe the youths have solutions to most of their challenges. What they don't have is a big brother, what they don't have is a caring government to be able to assist them achieve their objectives and goals. So I'm positioning myself as president as big brother to the youth."
The Lungu legacy still hangs over the race in unexpected ways. The row over the former president's burial, still unresolved as the family does not want Hichilema to have anything to do with it, has become a potent political symbol. Mundubile has publicly pledged that he and his running mate, Makebi Zulu, would ensure a dignified burial if they win the election.
However, not everyone is persuaded by the opposition's return. "I wouldn't love to see them come back in the first place because we gave them a chance to rule the country and we saw what they did," Edith Muntanga, in her late 30s, said, referring to the previous government's record on corruption and governance. This election is the first under significant constitutional changes enacted in late 2025, which introduced a mixed-member system for the National Assembly.
The reforms aim to boost representation in a parliament where women have long been underrepresented. Whether they will translate into meaningful influence remains to be seen. On the presidential ballot itself, gender representivity is limited: of the 14 candidates cleared by the electoral commission, only one is a woman - independent Given Katuta. To win in the first round, a presidential candidate needs to have more than 50% of the votes cast.
Civil society voices have raised concerns about the integrity of the process. Linda Kasonde, a human rights activist and former president of the Law Association of Zambia, has questioned the composition of the electoral commission. "In terms of the constitution of the electoral commission itself, a number of the members of the commission are actually politically aligned to the incumbent ruling party and are not seen to be independent," she said. The commission has consistently rejected accusations of political bias, saying it operates strictly within a constitutional mandate and adheres to principles of transparency and independence.
Zambia has a proud record of peaceful elections and democratic transfers of power. Yet trust in institutions, the cost of living, and the unfinished story of a former president's final resting place have combined to make this contest harder to predict. As campaign rallies fill football grounds, Zambians are weighing the tangible gains of the past five years against the daily struggles that still define their lives. On August 13th, they will deliver their verdict.
